KENTUCKY DERBY 
MAY 2, 2026

JEFF NASH AND LEFTY LOU CAPPELLI HANDICAP THE RACE:
https://youtu.be/Z_kbEpdWd5s
&
JEFF NASH WILL HANDICAP THE DERBY
Thursday, April 30th at 4:20 PM
Museum of Sports Radio - WWDB 860 AM
AND
Saturday, May 2nd 10 AM
ESPN Radio - The Locker Room with Billy Schweim - 97.3 FM

     The Kentucky Derby is the most exciting horse race of the year.  It is also the most difficult to handicap.  Only the Derby will feature 20 relatively inexperienced colts in a calvary charge, traveling a longer distance than they have ever run before (1 1/4 miles) and, for most, a racing distance they will never try again.  But that’s what makes this race so interesting, and exciting. 

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     Looking that this field of 20, what stands out is the extraordinary pedigree of virtually all the horses which earned enough points from prior races to qualify to run in the prestigious Kentucky Derby.  If you want a race which features the most spectacular three-year old thoroughbreds, this is your dream team.  Starting with the $2.4 Million yearling purchase 14-POTENTE, followed by the $975K yearling purchase 1-RENEGADE, and $875K 4-LITMAS TEST, the lineup of million-dollar babies goes on and on.  There are only a couple of “working man” horses in 11-INCREDIBOLT, a mere $75K purchase along with longshot 16-PAVLOVIAN, bred by the obscure sire Pavel. 

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     The great thing about the Derby is that anyone can win.  Rich or poor, every horse here has a shot.  And for that reason, the expert handicapper can flub an analysis, as I have done many times over the years.

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Handicapping a horse race is simple.  Pick the fastest horse to win.  That works often enough, especially in short fields because the variables embedded in every race are minimal.

 

     The problem with handicapping the Derby is that the variables are extensive in a 20-horse field.  For example, the fastest horse in the race based on prior starts is known for early speed.  If that speed is unchecked from the start, the horse will win wire-to-wire.  In the Derby, however, that speedster may get bumped and squeezed at the start because of the many horses simultaneously tumbling out of the starting gate.  An early squeeze or bump can unwind the expert’s analysis of the race.  Then, the unexpected and unchecked longshot runs the race of a lifetime and wins.  Look no further than the 2022 Derby when the #21 horse and late entrant Rich Strike came from nowhere to win at 80-1.  

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     For all these reasons, I always recommend to my followers to bet a favorite number, favorite color, or most interesting name of a horse.  For me, I take my top three horses and box them with “ALL” other horses in the exotics.  I did that four years ago and hit a $7,500 trifecta when the aforementioned Rich Strike upset the field.  I did not pick Rich Strike – not even close.  In that race, two of my picks rounded out the Trifecta with my “ALL” bet and I won. 

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     In reviewing the 20 horses entered in this year’s Derby, it is very clear that this is as evenly matched Derby as I have seen in recent history.  There is no obvious standout.  As described below, a good case can be made for at least eight of the runners.

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     Let’s look at the Derby field:

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1-RENEGADE: One of the favorites gets the most unlucky and difficult post position.  No #1 horse has ever won the Derby.  The post is notorious for getting the horse squeezed into the rail and off position.  However, if any horse has a chance to break the inside rail post position jinx it is this magnificent runner.  As mentioned above, this colt was purchased as a yearling for $975K and is owned by the most famous and controversial of all racing owners, Mike Repole.  Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and ridden by the great Irad Ortiz.  This colt has an early record of success, winning three of four starts, including the Grade-1 (G-1) Arkansas Derby by four lengths.  In that race, 1-RENEGADE was running dead last down the backstretch and circled the field to win driving down the stretch.  A stunning move against some terrific competition.  Jockey Irad Ortiz is perhaps the best jockey in the world.  He has won every major race… except the Derby.  If 1-RENEGADE can avoid a disaster at the start, he has a very good chance to replicate that Arkansas race and win.  My pick. 

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2-ALBUS: A longshot here who qualified for the Derby by stunning the G-2 Wood Memorial field at Aqueduct.  2-ALBUS was not expected to win that day.  He had just won a Maiden race in a relatively slow time two months prior and went off as a 12-1 longshot in the Wood.  The race had a very fast early pace which caused the leaders to burn out and fade out of contention down the stretch.  2-ALBUS had been running far behind and was able to pass those tiring horses to a surprise win without showing any talent or speed.  In that race, he beat 5-RIGHT TO PARTY who also passed tiring horses.  The Wood Memorial was a bust that day, and the horses who finished at the top did not impress.

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3-INTREPIDO: This west coast invader qualified for the Derby due to his mid-range finishes in a bunch of stake races, including his lackluster fourth place finish in the G-1 Santa Anita Derby and fifth place finish in the G-1 Breeders Cup Juvenile race.  There was great promise as a two-year old when 3-INTERPIDO won a G-1 stakes race in only his third race.  Unfortunately, his three-year old season has not replicated that promise.  His speed ratings have never approached what he earned last year. Perhaps the Derby is the wrong place at the wrong time, although stranger things have happened in this the strangest of all races.

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4-LITMAS TEST: An interesting longshot at 50-1.  I can’t remember a time when a Bob Baffert trained horse was at such long odds.  For that reason alone, I will throw a deuce on this $875K yearling purchase to win.  Now, understand, there is a reason he is 50-1.  He flashes early speed but often fades as he did when finishing 7th in the Arkansas Derby, more than twelve lengths behind winner 1-RENEGADE.  In the race prior to that, he finished five+ lengths behind 13-SILENT TACTIC.  But for the Baffert connection, it is hard to see this horse doing anything more than positioning himself on top during the early going then eventually fade to oblivion.  I suspect trainer Baffert is using this pony as a rabbit for the benefit of stablemate 14-POTENTE.  More on that below.

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5-RIGHT TO PARTY: SCRATCHED

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6-COMMANDMENT: A $500K yearling purchase, bred by the champion sire Into Mischief, trained by one of the best in business, Brad Cox, and ridden by prior Kentucky Derby winner Luis Saez.  Oh, and he happened to win the G-1 Florida Derby which was his fourth win in a row and fourth of a five race career.  What’s not to love about this horse?  6-COMMANDMENT likes to run mid-pack, has the perfect post position to settle into that comfortable placement, and as witnessed in the Florida Derby has an impressive kick down the stretch.  In that Florida Derby prep, his final quarter was off the chart when won the race by a nose defeating 9-THE PUMA and 12-CHIEF WALLABEE.  This horse is a grinder as he does just what it takes to win.  It may take a bit more than grind to win the Derby and I worry that this horse will get caught up in traffic given his come from behind strategy. Still, do not discount this horse for a significant piece of the prize.

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7-DANON BOURBON: An undefeated Japanese import.  Three races in Japan, and three wins, all by large margins.  In fact, in his first race, this colt faced off against 15 competitors giving him some experience against a large field which may come in handy when facing off against the large Derby field.  It is hard to know the talent level of this horse having not run against North American competition.  However, his speed times in the Japan races exceed that of others who have raced in similar races in Japan.  He may be that good.  Time will tell.  I do note that no Japanese horse has ever won the Derby.  They are 0-10.  No overseas shipper has won the Derby.  They are 0-50.  But Japanese import Forever Young came within a nose of winning the Derby two years ago and I suspect we are getting closer to breaking that overseas barrier.  Not my top choice (that belongs to 1 RENEGADE), but he is my longshot pick.  I am putting some money on him to win, and he will certainly be a significant part of my Exotics. 

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8-SO HAPPY: This horse was not supposed to beat the favorite 14-POTENTE in the Santa Anita Derby.  The defeated $2.4 Million 14-POTENTE, trained by the great Bob Baffert, went off at even odds.  He was supposed to win wire-to-wire.  In fact, he was winning until 8-SO HAPPY found the energy to outkick his rival down the stretch, something he did not do the race prior when he got outkicked down the stretch in the G-2 San Felipe Stakes.  Ridden by Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith, this horse may be on the improve and ready to compete with the best once again. I have this horse as my second-best longshot.

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9-THE PUMA: A five-race career for this colt with one win.  That lone victory happened to come in the G-3 Tampa Derby (not in a maiden race).  While the win in Tampa was a surprise to many, his follow up second place (by a nose) finish to 6-COMMANDMENT may be even more surprising and impressive.  In that race, 9-The Puma broke a bit slow from the gate, traveled four-wide, took the lead at the top of the stretch only to get nipped at the wire by the eventual winner.  In reviewing the big-three finishers of the Florida Derby:  6-COMMANDMENT, 9-THE PUMA, and 12-CHIEF WALLABEE, I drilled down to see which one is best positioned to advance his skills for Derby success.  I concluded that 9-THE PUMA is that horse.  It is the combination of his connections - trainer Delgado/jockey Castellano (winners of the 2023 Derby), his pedigree which favors long distance races, and the colt's on-track success all of which makes this horse stand out to me.  If he has a smooth Derby trip, this colt may take it all.

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10-WONDER DEAN: A second import from Japan.  This colt, however, has a bit more seasoning coming into the Derby.  Most recently, 10-WONDER DEAN won a G-2 stakes race in the United Arab Emirate against a competitive field of eleven starters.  Again, no horse flying in from overseas has won the Derby in its 152-year history.  I believe the talent level here falls below 7-DANON BOURBON. 

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11-INCREDIBOLT: This colt was purchased as a yearling for the relatively meager amount of $75K. He has already paid dividends with purse earnings of about $500K.  In looking at this colt’s five race career, his trainer Riley Mott has perfectly placed him in the races where he can compete.  He has run in two Grade-3 stakes, winning one and finishing sixth in the other.  His victory in the recent Virginia Derby (not a graded stakes) gave the horse enough points to qualify for the Derby.  All in all, a terrific horse.  The key question is whether this race is over his head.

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12-CHIEF WALLABEE: I always take interest in horses trained by Bill Mott, one of the nation’s best.  I am especially intrigued when I see a Bill Mott horse with only three prior starts entered in the Derby.  The Mott/Alvardo connection won last year’s Derby aboard Sovereignty.  In three races, 12-CHIEF WALLABEE has been very competitive with terrific speed ratings. In his last race, the colt was competitive in the G-1 Florida Derby, finishing half a length behind the winner 6-COMMANDMENT and 9-THE PUMA.  Prior to that race, he finished second to 6-COMMANDMENT missing by a neck.  I do believe the added Derby distance may help this horse as he is bred to run all day.  Trainer Mott has made an equipment change by adding blinkers, hoping to keep the horse more focused.  That change may just be the difference maker.  I do note, however, that horses adding blinkers on Derby day are 0-13. 

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13-SILENT TACTIC: SCRATCHED

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14-POTENTE: Once again, this horse was purchased for a whopping $2.4 Million as a yearling.  He must’ve been one good lookin’ baby to fetch that kind of money at the sale.  Trained by Bob Baffert and sired by Into Mischief, the connections and pedigree are the best.  This colt has only run three times in his short career.  He won his first two races; the second race was in the G-2 San Felipe Stakes.  The third and final prep race before the Derby was the G-1 Santa Anita Derby where he entered the race as the even money favorite.  He was supposed to win that race but could not find a way past the winner 8-SO HAPPY who was a surprise winner at 7-1. So, what happened that day?  I closer look at the Santa Anita Derby offers some explanation (aka, excuse).  In that race, 14-POTENTE decided to run with the fast-charging frontrunner who was blistering the track.  Consequently, 14-POTENTE did not have the energy to compete down the stretch.  Now, the great horses are supposed to find a way to win irrespective of the circumstances.  And on Santa Anita Day, this colt was not great.  Could be a different story on Derby Day given the talents of his trainer Baffert who holds the record for most Derby wins, six.  Could be a seventh on May 2. 

 

15-EMERGING MARKET: The horse with the least experience in the field.  Two-race career, two wins.  The second race happened to be the G-2 Louisiana Derby which he won by a head in an impressive race fresh off a maiden win.  His speed rating was fast that day, brilliantly ridden by prior Derby winner Flavian Prat.  This horse has obvious talent with room to grow.  The lone question is whether a talented horse with only two career starts can win the biggest race of them all?  Would not surprise.  Just hard to pick a horse with a glaring lack of experience.

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16-PAVLOVIAN: From the least experienced horse to the most experienced, this colt has run ten career races.  He has won two and finished in the money seven times.  Always competitive, just not against top tier talent.  His most impressive race was his last, in the G-2 Louisiana Derby, as a 20-1 longshot this colt ran a competitive second to winner 15-EMERGING MARKET.  That race was especially impressive as 16-PAVLOVIAN held the lead at a very fast pace until the very end when nipped by the winner.  What is most interesting about this horse is that in his last two races, with new jockey Edwin Maldonaldo on board, trainer Doug O’Neill applied blinkers and pushed to the lead early, unlike his prior races where he ran from behind.  That change in equipment and tactics worked because his performance and speed ratings jumped dramatically.  Expect this horse to do the same in the Derby.  Whether he can hold on to win against the best closers in the world is the question.  Unlikely, but catch me if you can.

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17-SIX SPEED: A longshot shipper from the UAE.  So again, not much to review in terms of handicapping.  What is known is that this colt is bred for this distance, and that overseas he has won three of five prior races.  Most recently, he finished second to 10-WONDER DEAN in the G-2 UAE Derby.  Interestingly, the UAE-based trainer decided to have the 2024 Derby winner jockey Brian Hernandez ride this horse. 

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18-FURTHER ADO: One of the race favorites who drew a far outside post position.  What makes this horse one of the impressive standouts is his outstanding show in winning the G-1 Blue Grass Stakes where he romped by eleven lengths.  That win gave this colt the highest speed rating of any other horse in all the races.  Prior to that race, 18-FURTHER ADO finished second to 9-THE PUMA in the G-3 Tampa Derby.  He ran that race after a three-month layoff, so he gets a pass on that.  It is interesting to note that the colt’s regular jockey Irad Ortiz has chosen to ride 1-RENEGADE for trainer Todd Pletcher.  The replacement though is not too shabby.  It is two-time Derby winner John Velasquez who, ironically, usually rides for Pletcher.  I am sure there is more to this story.  Bottom line, if 18-FURTHER ADO runs back to his Blue Grass form, he will be in the mix for victory.

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19-GOLDEN TEMPO: I love horses sired by the great Curlin.  That is the terrific pedigree of this colt.  He has run four times, winning two, including the G-3 Lecomte Stakes.  Like his dad, this horse is pure closer.  Make no mistake, starting from post position nineteen will allow this colt to save ground.  He will be running from behind for most of the race, then try to kick it in gear down the stretch.  He has shown the ability to make up ground.  How much will depend on the speed of the early leaders.  If the early pace is quick, expect this horse to be making up ground toward the wire.  The question is whether he has the talent to make an impact against the best in the world.

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20-FULLEFFORT: SCRATCHED

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21-GREAT WHITE: The grey horse you see running with the nineteen bay or brown horses is this gelding.  He qualified due to the three scratches in the race, giving his young trainer from Ireland John Ennis and first time Derby jockey Alex Achard a dream-come-true chance to compete in the biggest race in the racing world.  21-GREAT WHITE is a nice horse, purchased as a yearling for the modest price of $55K.  He has two wins in four starts.  His claim to fame was a stunning upset in a non-graded stakes race at Turfway Park where he defeated Fulleffort, now scratched.  The pedigree says that this horse cannot handle the Derby distance.  Expect him to vie with the leaders early going, but not hold serve as they approach the final turn.  

 

22-OCELLI: A late entry into the race due to the scratch of 20-FULLEFFORT.  Here is a horse that has never won a race.  Six starts and no wins.  It makes me wonder how he earned enough points to qualify for the race, even as an add-on entry.  For the reasons expressed in the analysis for both 2-ALBUS and 5-RIGHT TO PARTY, this horse is not expected to light up the board.  He did not fare well in the slow G-2 Wood Memorial finishing third behind those two in the race.  Prior to that, this colt finished far behind winner 11-INCREDIBOLT in the Virginia Derby, and further behind 1-RENEGADE in a non-graded stakes race before that.  If this horse wins, it means he transforms into a racehorse that had not existed until that very unlikely moment.  A win would probably be the greatest upset in Derby history.  

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23-ROBUSTA: Thanks to the unusual circumstance of three scratches in the Derby field, this Doug O'Neill trained horse (his second in the race - 16-PAVLOVIAN the other) sneaks into the race.  The colt has not impressed with speed ratings, with one exception.  In the G-2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, 23-ROBUSTA went head-to-head with 8-SO HAPPY and 14-POTENTE, finishing a surprise second at 67-1 in that race, with a speed rating far beyond what he accomplished in races before and after.  Must've had his Wheaties that day.  He will need them again on Derby Day to challenge the big boys again.  

 

ANALYSIS:

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This year’s Derby is wide open with several in the field with a good chance to win.  I suspect the early pace will be above average but not blistering.  In past races, the ultimate winner was close to the lead after the field turns for home.  7-DANON BOURBON should be at or close to the lead as they drive down the stretch.  14-POTENTE will be with him, perhaps nose to nose.  1-RENEGADE will be driving outside digging in to catch the leader(s).  9-THE PUMA and 18-FURTHER ADO will be challenging as well. 

 

SELECTIONS:

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WIN: 1-RENEGADE

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LONGSHOT: 7-DANON BOURBON

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EXACTA:

BOX 1/7/14

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TRIFECTA:

KEY 1 WITH 7/14/ALL

BOX 1/7/ALL

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SUPERFECTA:

KEY:  1 WITH 7/14/ALL

BOX: 1/7/14/18

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KENTUCKY OAKS BONUS SELECTION:  11-PERCY'S BAR

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CELEBRITY SELECTIONS:

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BRIAN THE BUG BOY:  8-SO HAPPY

The first Saturday in May is upon finally upon us. The 152nd running of Kentucky Derby is again packed with a star-studded field made up mostly of million-dollar yearlings, meanwhile So Happy gallops in as the ultimate underdog with a heartwarming twist and is my top choice in the run for the roses. This bargain $12,000 colt by Runhappy shocked the West Coast, romping home by 2¾ lengths in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) with a flashy 100 Beyer and proving he can stretch his pedigree and deliver when the lights shine brightest. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, master of the big stage, returns aboard, while trainer Mark Glatt finally reaches the Derby after decades of grinding.

Why So Happy? Because on May 2 at Churchill Downs, this lightly raced warrior won’t just compete, he’ll turn the Twin Spires into a sea of smiles. From humble beginnings to Derby glory, So Happy reminds us why we love the Sport of Kings. I’m playing So Happy to win and throwing him on top my exactas with The Puma, Chief Wallabee and Commandment.

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LEFTY LOUIE: 12-CHIEF WALLABEE

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This promises to be an exciting race as there are several horses with lots of talent and speed. I predict a photo finish for the top three finishers with Chief Wallabee (12) finishing first by a lip over Danon Bourbon (7). Further Ado (18) will finish third by a nose. I am going box all three horses in both an exacta and trifecta box bet. Good luck everyone.

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DANNY DIMES:  20-FULLEFFORT

 

I love wide-open Derbys. What strikes me the most about this year's field is all of the front-end speed. Normally, we see something around 2-3 early speed horses. This year, at least 4 and maybe 5. There is always a fast pace, but this year we could be looking at something around a 44 half, which sets up perfectly for a big closer, and there are a few good ones to choose from.

 

I am going with 20-FULLEFFORT. Originally a turf horse and not the greatest morning runner in 2025, I think the connections knew what they had at the end of last year and specifically developed a plan to get this horse into the Derby. The closest Derby comp I have on him was Final Gambit, which had an identical path last year and rallied to finish 4th. Fulleffort is better and it appears that the morning issues have been solved. Btw, the 2nd place finisher in the Jeff Ruby will probably go off as a huge favorite in the American Turf on the undercard. 

 

Finally, I am getting Tyler Gafflione, who is the top Jockey at Churchill and knows how to win there. The 20 post doesn't bother me as it will give the jockey options as to either drop back or stalk without getting banged all over the place.

 

OTHER HORSES I LIKE AND PLAN ON PLAYING

 

19 - GOLDEN TEMPO. Also a deep closer and I am using the same logic as Fulleffort.

14 - POTENTE. Cannot pass up a $2.4M Baffert horse at 20-1. If he avoids a speed duel early, watch out.

15 - EMERGING MARKET. Was almost my top pick and am hearing Prat chose this mount. Dialed in a scorching workout on the track and looks great. Boom or bust here with only 2 races, but I expect big things from him as the season moves along.

12 - CHIEF WALLABEE. This will be all about the trip he gets. if clean, you will be cashing a ticket of some kind. 

6 - COMMANDMENT. Same as the 12. Can he settle in, wait and close or will he get a terrible trip? 

 

Good to everyone!!