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PREAKNESS 2025

LIVE PODCAST: JEFF NASH AND LEFTY LOU CAPPELLI ANALYZE THE RACE

JEFF NASH HANDICAPS THE PREAKNESS

ESPN 97.3 FM

THE LOCKER ROOM WITH BILLY SCHWEIM

Next up is the second leg of the 2025 Triple Crown races, the Preakness at Pimlico Racetrack.

Last year, 89-year-old trainer Wayne Lucas shocked the racing world when his grey three-year-old Seize the Grey wired the field to seize an upset in the Preakness. Will Trainer Lucas replicate that performance for the “ages” with his horse 3-AMERICAN PROMISE? Will the Derby favorite 2-JOURNALISM redeem himself after finishing second to Derby winner Sovereignty? Will trainer Bob Baffert win his ninth Preakness with the inexperienced 1-GOAL ORIENTED? Can a 4-HEART OF HONOR, who spent a career running in Dubai, defeat some of the best three-year-olds in the United States? Will Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher who has never won a Preakness finally break his losing streak with 6-RIVER THAMES?

So much intrigue in this race. A good field of horses, notwithstanding the absence of some of the Derby notables, such as winner Sovereignty, third place finisher Baeza, Final Gambit, and Tiztastic. Expect to see them in the Belmont Stakes, three weeks after Preakness day. What a race that will be!

DERBY RECAP:

Can’t handicap the Preakness without taking a look at what happened in the Derby.

For the most part, the race ran to the expected form. Fast early pace caused the pacesetters to tire. The mid-pack and closers charged forward. All of which was anticipated.

What was not anticipated was Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull to run way too fast on the lead. When I saw the first quarter time at 22+ seconds, I knew Citizen Bull was cooked, and he was. Also, I did not expect Sovereignty to outduel Journalism down the stretch. Journalism’ s past races showed an impressive string of very fast stretch/closing drives. On Derby Day, he ran his slowest career final quarter as the winner passed him at the wire. Maybe it was the sloppy track, or longer race distance, or maybe Journalism just had an off day. Hey, even the great Secretariat got beat on occasion. That’s horse racing. Journalism has returned for the Preakness. Sovereignty has not.

THE PREAKNESS FIELD:

GOAL ORIENTED: This $425K yearling purchase with superb pedigree has only run two races, both winners. He won his maiden race at Santa Anita, then an allowance race at Churchill on Derby Day. Trained by eight-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert, which makes him a serious contender. However, to jump from two races against modest competition to the Preakness is a huge jump for even the best of horses.
JOURNALISM: The obvious class of the field and expected odds-on favorite. On paper, he cannot lose this race. He did not run his best race at the Derby but still finished a strong second. If you want to win and collect little, this is your horse.
AMERICAN PROMISE: Will trainer Wayne Lucas repeat last year’s upset victory with this horse? I suspect not. Finishing 16th in the Derby does not offer a promise of a better performance here.
HEART OF HONOR: It’s always difficult to discern the talent of a horse traveling from overseas to face the top talent in the United States. That goes for this colt. In his last race he lost by a nose to Admire Daytona who traveled to the US for the Derby and finished dead last. Not much more to go on.
PAY BILLY: It’s hard to discount a horse that has won four of his last five races. Still, the competition in those races does not measure up to his competition here. This colt is the hometown favorite, having run all his eight prior races in Baltimore or Delaware. Would not shock if he landed in the exotics.
RIVER THAMES: Trainer Todd Pletcher has won every major race in the racing world… except the Preakness. Could this be the year? Perhaps. This is a talented colt with two wins in four races. In those two defeats, a G-2 and G-1, respectively, he lost each by less than a length. My concern is that the horse is not bred for distance. The 1 3/16 mile race distance may be just too long for the win. However, clearly an exotics play.
SANDMAN: Kentucky Derby betters had this grey colt as the second choice behind 2-JOURNALISM. Unfortunately, the horse never fired on Derby Day, leaving him to finish a distant seventh. This horse needs a quick early pace to allow him to catch the tired leaders down the stretch. However, race is not unfolding in that manner. Clearly, a late finisher to be considered in exotics, but not my pick for the exacta.
CLEVER AGAIN: There is always one horse that intrigues. This is the one. Lightly raced with only three prior starts in which he won his last two handily. This $500K yearling purchase loves to run in front. Here, he is expected to do the same. Catch me if you can. I note that jockey Jose Ortiz has left his prior mount on 7-SANDMAN in favor of this horse. Watch out.
GOSGER: My longshot special. A well-bred horse with the pedigree to love this distance. This grey colt has only run three times, with two victories in his last two races, including a two-length victory in the G-2 Lexington in his last start. I could see this horse tracking the leaders, including 8-CLEVER AGAIN. If the leader fades, this colt will be nipping at his heals.

HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN:

The early pace will be moderately fast, with 8-CLEVER AGAIN charging to the lead. He will be tracked, but not pressed, by 1-GOAL ORIENTED, 3-AMERICAN PROMISE, 5-PAY BILLY, 6-RIVER THAMES, and 9-GOSGER.

Down the back stretch 2-JOURNALISM 4-HEART OF HONOR will move into position to attack the leaders. That strategic moment of attack will be a critical decision because they cannot allow 8-CLEVER AGAIN, or any of the trackers to open an insurmountable lead.

7-SANDMAN will be saving ground and planning a late drive down the stretch.

But the fastest horse usually wins. Here, the class of the race is 2-JOURNALISM. Expect him to pass the front runners and overtake 8-CLEVER AGAIN.

Any of the others could round out the exotics. So, I will play the exotics accordingly.

MY SELECTIONS:

WINNER: 2-JOURNALISM

LONGSHOT: 9-GOSGER

EXACTA: 2/8 – Straight and Boxed

TRIFECTA: Key 2 with 8/ALL. Box 2/8/ALL

SUPERFECTA: Key 2 with 8/6/ALL

CELEBRITY HANDICAPPER:

LEFTY LOU: 2-JOURNALISM

This is going to be a very interesting race. The field lacks the talent that we saw in the Kentucky Derby. But there are few up and coming horses with little experience that have the potential to be very good horses with lots of wins ahead of them. That being said, none of them can match the speed and strength of Journalism (2).There are no horses like Sovereignty in this race. Journalism will win this race.

Who finishes second and third? It’s a tough race to handicap because of the lack of experience of some of the horses who have outstanding potential. I think it will be a close finish for a few horses trailing Journalism with Sandman (7) finishing second and River Thames (6) finishing third.

Sandman had a terrible start in the Kentucky Derby then rallied from last to finish seventh. With less traffic in this race, he will have a good start and will be fast enough to best the rest of the field to finish second.

River Thames finished second to Journalism in the Fountain of Youth. He was kept out of the Derby to train for this race. He will finish a closely behind Sandman.

My long shot is American Promise. He is a good value at 15-1 and could give the field a challenge if he runs his best race.

My wagers will be:
2 to win
2-7 exacta
2-7-6 trifecta
3 to win as my long shot bet

Good luck to everyone!

Lefty Louie

KENTUCKY DERBY – 2025

WATCH JEFF NASH AND LOU CAPPELLI

HANDICAP THE DERBY FIELD

https://youtu.be/tC3P5NRMQAg

LISTEN TO JEFF NASH HANDICAP THE DERBY

THURSDAY, MAY 1 AT 4:25 PM -WWDB RADIO 860 AM

AND

SATURDAY, MAY 3 AT 10:10 AM

ESPN 97.3 FM - THE LOCKER ROOM WITH BILLY SCHWEIM

The biggest story of this year’s Kentucky Derby doesn’t concern any horses. This year, all eyes will be on six-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert who returns to Churchill Downs after a four-year suspension. That suspension followed what would have been Baffert’s seventh Derby win, but for the drugs found in the winner’s blood test.

Now returning to the Derby competition, Baffert saddles 1-CITIZEN BULL, the two-year-old Horse of the Year in 2024.

The field is very competitive without a clear and decisive favorite. That will make for some good prices. So, money is to be made. Let’s see how to get some…

First, we look at how we expect the race to be run. Most notably, there are several entrants who love to run up front early. That should make for a fast early pace. At the distance of 1 ¼ miles, rushing too fast, too early, usually results in disaster for the speedsters. Let’s look at a 10-year analysis of the race.

It’s the only race in the world where twenty horses will compete at a distance of 1 ¼ mile. For the purpose of this analysis, I have excluded the years in which the track was sloppy (2017, 2018, and 2019). The fastest early pace in the past ten years occurred in 2022. The fractions for the first six furlongs were 21.78, 45.36, and 1:10.34. Not surprisingly, the early leaders in that race finished the race 10th, 15th, and 20th, respectively.

The winner was longshot Rich Strike who came from 18th to win the race, outlasting the favorite who stayed mid-pack till the one-mile marker.

But the analysis also shows that a strong front runner can wire the field or remain competitive to the end. Such was the case in 2020, the third fastest of the seven opening times, when Bob Baffert’s Authentic went gate-to-wire to defeat favorite Tiz the Law.

The same result in 2016, the second fastest of opening times, when favorite Nyquest ran just behind the leader to win the race down the stretch. In that race, the second-place finisher came from way back to capture place.

The analytics tell us that an early fast pace will generally help the stretch horses. However, a strong front runner bred for distance can hold off the late gainers.

Let’s take a hard look at the field:

1. CITIZEN BULL: The 2024 two-year-old horse of the year wins the unlucky inside post prize. This $675K yearling purchase is out of the great sire Into Mischief and trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. Outstanding early speed will help from the gate to avoid the usual trouble the #1 horse always finds in the 20-horse Derby cavalry charge. But it will take a strong surge, perhaps more than he can handle in a 1 ¼ mile race. Last time he was challenged early was in the Santa Anita Derby, when he surged to the lead, but faded in the stretch and fell behind 8-JOURNALISM and 21-BAEZA. He would need to go wire to wire here and at a longer distance than the California race. Handicap logic says to not play this speedster; that he will get bumped out of position at the gate or get burned out quickly because of the other early speed in the race. But this is the lone Bob Baffert trained horse in the race and Trainer Bob has something to prove after a four-year suspension. Handicap logic also says never discount Baffert in a big race. So, I won't.

2. NEOEQUOS: The lone Florida bred horse in the race, a modest $22K two-year-old purchase (lucky owners!). Another horse with early speed, but like his purchase price, a modest showing in all seven prior starts. Still, this colt was competitive in the recent Fountain of Youth G-2 and Florida Derby G-1 where he finished third both starts, defeated by the 18-SOVERNITY each time. Interesting, his jockey Flaven Prat who won the 2019 Derby said that he will not ride this horse if the 21-BAEZA gets into the race due to a scratch. Says it all about this horse’s chance.

3. FINAL GAMBIT: Home bred by Juddmonte Racing out of an elite sire, Not This Time. Surprising qualifier to the Derby field given his first three races, all Maiden starts, with less than stellar speed ratings. Then came the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a G-3 stakes race where he was bumped at the start, raced last down the backstretch, then surged forward to win by almost four lengths with an incredibly fast final quarter time. Derby longshots Rich Strike and Animal Kingdom used that race as a Derby prep, with great success. So, which horse do we find in the Derby? Never discount trainer Brad Cox. It should be noted that this colt has never run on dirt, with all four starts on either turf or a synthetic surface. Still, the breeding suggests the horse will take to dirt. Given the early speed expected in the race from other starters, this grey colt may surprise by passing them all down the stretch. He's been training at Churchill Downs since April waiting for Derby Day. A live longshot.

4. RODRIGUEZ: SCRATCHED

5. AMERICAN PROMISE: I am amazed and impressed that 90+ year old trainer Wayne Lucas can still bring quality horses to compete against the best in the world. This year’s Lucas horse is the $750K yearling purchase out of sire and Triple Crown winner Justify. Match that with broodmare sire Tapit and you have top tier pedigree. Notwithstanding the breeding excellence, this colt had a mediocre racing record for his first eight starts, winning just one. His ninth start showed the talent he may be harnessing (pardon the pun). A non-graded stakes win at Colonial Downs. Probably not enough of an impression in support of this horse on Derby day, but something to watch.

6. AMIRE DAYTONA: The lone foreign bred horse, sired in Japan. It is widely known that horses racing overseas do not fare well in the Derby. But as the foreign market gets more competitive, it is just a matter of time before these foreign invaders win America’s biggest race. Given this colt’s two-time defeats to 7-LUXOR CAFÉ, also racing in Japan, I would defer to LUXOR as a potential winner from overseas.

7. LUXOR CAFÉ: Born in Kentucky, this colt has run six times in Japan, winning four of those races and placing once. Sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, this foreign runner defeated 6-AMIRE DAYTONA twice. It is hard to really know the level of talent when running overseas. However, there is obvious talent here which should not be discounted. Eventually, a horse shipped in from outside the United States will win the Derby. Will this be the year?

8. JOURNALISM: The horse most likely to be the Derby Day favorite. Looking at his pedigree and racing record, being the favorite should be no surprise. Sired by champion Curlin, this colt was sold at the yearling sale for $825K. In five career starts, the colt has won four races. The most recent victory was an outstanding run in winning the Santa Anita Derby, coming off the pace, passing second place 21-BAEZA. Perhaps most impressive are his final quarter times in the four wins. He just blows past the horses in front as he rockets down the stretch. This horse has all the tools to win the first Derby for trainer Mike McCarthy. I usually shy away from betting Derby favorites. However, I suspect the odds will not drop below 3-1 by making a bet palatable and earning this horse as my choice for the Derby win.

9. BURNHAM SQUARE: An impressive career, winning three of six starts, including his last race, the Blue Grass Stakes G-1. In that race, the colt overcame a difficult start, sat last down the backstretch, turned the corner five-wide, and charged down the stretch to catch the leader by a nose at the wire. A gutty impressive performance. Now, in that race, the early pace was super-fast, and only seven horses ran. Different circumstances here. The real question is whether this colt has the talent to compete with this field of twenty. Ridden by last year’s winning jockey, Brian Hernandez. There hasn’t been a repeat winner for any jockey in the modern era.

10.GRANDE: SCRATCHED

11.FLYNG MOHAWK: This colt ran his first five races on the turf with modest success. In his last race, on a synthetic track, he surpassed all prior efforts with an impressive second place finish behind 3-FINAL GAMBIT. The big question for this horse is whether the dirt surface at Churchill Downs will prove to be a positive or negative factor. The Kentucky Derby is a difficult place to answer that question.

12.EAST AVENUE: After his first two races as a two-year-old in 2024, this horse was the class of the two-year-old field. He was the favorite going into the Breeders Cup Juvenile race last November. But he stumbled from the gate and never caught up on that day. Held out till February, he returned to racing in the Risen Star Stakes G-2, only to find no form when chasing the pace then running out of gas to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. All seemed lost. Then, trainer Brendan Walsh changed it up in the Blue Grass Stakes G-1 adding blinkers to keep the horse focused, and it worked. This colt ran his best race, surging to the lead, heading toward a wire-to-wire victory, only to get nipped by a nose by 9-BURNHAM SQUARE. Expect this colt to surge for the early Derby lead. He has the pedigree to run long distances, so this could be a catch me if you can race. However, I believe they will.

13.PUBLISHER: Here is a horse on the improve. On paper, the pedigree is outstanding. Sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, trained by Steve Asmussen, sold as a yearling for $600K, ridden by the great Irad Ortiz. Sounds amazing, right? Well, one important factor to consider… in seven starts, he has never won. That said, the colt sported blinkers for the first time in the Arkansas Derby G-1 and ran a terrific race coming from behind to finish second to 17-SANDMAN. To pick this horse you must believe that his first win ever will come in the most competitive race of them all, The Kentucky Derby. That would be a first… and unlikely.

14.TIZTASTIC: The stablemate of neighbor 13-PUBLISHER is this seasoned colt. Also trained by Steve Asmussen, this colt has run eight times, winning three, including his last race, the Louisiana Derby G-2. That win surprised many because his first seven starts, while always in the mix, never showed the talent witnessed in Louisiana. Perhaps the difference was a change of jockey to 2013 Derby winner Joel Rosario, who will ride this colt once again in the Derby. The Louisiana Derby is a longer race than most other Derby preps at 1 3/16 mile. The pace in Louisiana was very fast, as expected in the Derby. The pace of Louisiana may be replicated at Churchill and, if so, we may have Louisiana’s champ take the roses on Saturday. Another live longshot.

15.RENDER JUDGMENT: Partially owned by the late country music star Toby Keith who dreamed of having a horse run in the Derby. For that reason, this colt is the sentimental pick. It may take an act from above to win the race because the colt’s seven race career does not show reason to believe he can win. One maiden victory followed by poor showings in a few stake races in which several other Derby contenders left this colt in the dust. It will take a huge improvement (and act of God) to be competitive here. But this is the Derby and anything can happen, especially if there is help from above. Still, a victory would be a surprise.

16.COAL BATTLE: I think of this colt as a tough competitor who gets the most out of his efforts. He doesn’t have the pedigree, connections, or talent of his competitors. Yet, he finds a way to be in the mix in all his races. He has won five of eight starts, including the Rebel Stakes G-2. But he followed that race with a mediocre performance in the Arkansas Derby G-1 finishing third well behind 17-SANDMAN and 13-PUBLISHER. His pedigree doesn’t like longer distances. I see this colt in the mix. I just can’t select him as the winner.

17.SANDMAN: Expect this grey colt to be one of the Derby favorites. For good reason. Purchased as a two-year-old in training for $1.2 Million. Sired by one of the best sires in the nation, Tapit, and ridden by champion Jose Ortiz. His victory in the Arkansas Derby G-1 was outstanding, giving ground for most of the race as the early pace was way too fast. He then rocketed four-wide to circle the field and win by two lengths. Super impressive prep race for the Derby. If he repeats that effort, he should be very competitive against this field. This horse is on the improve with every race. If he improves off the Arkansas Derby, watch out.

18.SOVEREIGNTY: The pedigree, connections, and ownership interests in this horse amount to racing royalty. This colt, sired by the great Into Mischief, broke his maiden with a victory in a G-3 stakes race at Churchill Downs. After a layoff, he opened the 2025 season with a victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes G-2, leading him to the Florida Derby G-1 as the favorite. But things didn’t go well in that Florida Derby prep. Leaving the gate from the outside post position, he was unable to get traction against the eventual winner. This colt has not shown a super-fast speed rating in any prior races. But there is something there, as if he is sitting on a big race. Could be the Derby, so maybe a winner, certainly should be part of your exotics.

19.CHUNK OF GOLD: This is the dream horse for anyone who owns modestly priced racehorses. Not because of any special pedigree or connections. To the contrary. In October 2023, the lucky owner purchased the less-than-impressive yearling for $2K. Well, two years later, this colt has now won $350K in four career races. He finished an impressive second to 14-TIZTASTIC in the Louisiana Derby G-2 and ran a nice race finishing second in the Risen Star Stakes G-2. The trouble here is lack of pedigree to suggest he can go the 1 ¼ mile distance. In both prior stake races, this colt did not show speed in the final quarter. It is unlikely that he will find such speed in the final Derby quarter to measure up against the blue bloods. Still, best investment of $2K, ever!

20.OWEN ALMIGHTY: Here is a colt built for running short distances. The average winning distance of all sire Speightstown progeny is 6.6 furlongs. That is the shortest average winning distance of any sire in the race. The broodmare sire AWD is worse, at 6.5. Consequently, the first four races of this colt’s career were at one mile or less. Trying a longer distance in the Derby prep races, the results were mixed. He ran a terrific race in the Tampa Derby G-3, winning wire-to-wire. The following Blue Grass Stakes G-1 found the horse crumbling down the stretch to finish a distant sixth of seven. Knowing this horse needs to run in front early on, it is difficult to envision a successful run starting from the twentieth post position.

21.BAEZA: Enters the race as the result of the scratch to 4-RODRIGUEZ. Last time that happened was 2022 when Rich Strike was a late entrant and won the Derby at 80-1. Could that happen twice in four years? If it does, you won't find similar high odds for this $1.2 Million sale at the 2023 Keenland yearling auction. Note, he has started only four races, but the last two were excellent outings. In February, the colt won his maiden handily. Then in April, his last start, the horse ran an outstanding race, finishing second to 8-JOURNALISM getting caught by the winner at the wire, after taking the lead down the stretch. So, we can see this colt coming into his own at the right time. He may be worth that $1.2 Million investment, just needs to overcome the outside post position to have a chance.

HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN:

The early pace will be fast with 1-CITIZEN BULL, 2-NEOEQUOS, 5-AMERICAN PROMISE, 12-EAST AVENUE, 20-OWEN ALMIGHTY all attempting to position themselves at or close to the lead. Interestingly, most of the early speed comes from the inside posts. How that plays out in a nineteen-horse cavalry charge remains to be seen. I suspect some of the speedsters will get bumped out of position, effectively ending their race early.

There are several who will try to stay mid-pack down the backstretch. Included in this group will be 8-JOURNALISM, 9-BURNHAM SQUARE, 15-RENDER JUDGMENT, 16-COAL BATTLE, AND 21-BAEZA.

Others are the deep closers who will save ground in the back of the pack.

There is a chance that one of the front runners will pull away from the pack, as Authentic did in the 2020 Derby. But given the likelihood of even the best of the front runners getting tired down the stretch, we have to look to one of the mid-pack horses or closers to pass the field as they hit the wire.

The best horse to do so is 8-JOURNALISM. Watch for 1-CITIZEN BULL to put up a fight till the end. I expect strong closing efforts by 3-FINAL GAMBIT, 14-TIZTASTIC, 17-SANDMAN, and 18-SOVEREIGNTY.

HERE ARE MY SELECTIONS:

WINNER: 8-JOURNALISM

LONGSHOTS: 1-CITIZEN BULL, 3-FINAL GAMBIT, 14-TIZTASTIC

EXACTA BOX: 8/1/18

EXACTA: KEY 8 with 3/9/14/17/18/21

TRIFECTA: KEY 8 with 1/18/ALL -

TRIFECTA BOX: 8/1/18

SUPERFECTA: KEY 8 with 1/18/ALL

SUPERFECTA BOX: 8/1/14/18, 8/1/3/18

KENTUCKY OAKS PICK: BOB BAFFERT'S 9-TENMA

CELEBRITY HANDICAPPERS:

LEFTY LOUIE: 8-JOURNALISM

Derby Day is approaching, and I hope that you are excited as much as I am about this race. It is going to be very competitive, and I am sensing a very dramatic and exciting finish.

I see Journalism (8) as the horse to beat. His pole position sets him up perfectly to sit back of the 6 or 7 speed horses in the race and then pull ahead to win down the stretch with his strength and speed. He was very impressive in the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby.

Sovereignty (18) is another horse to watch. His pole position is also very favorable to his style of running. I think the pace of this race will be very fast. His pole position will allow him to avoid the usual congestion of this race. He has a great kick at the end and cannot be ruled out as a winner. However, I do see him being edged out by Journalism.

I like longshot, American Promise (5), to finish third. He will be among the early leaders and has been getting stronger with each race. Ultimately, he will be passed by Journalism and Sovereignty but will finish strong enough to finish third. I also like him as my long shot to win.

Wagers:

8 to win

Exacta box 5-8

Trifecta box 5-8-18

Longshot to win 5

Good luck!

BUCKET LIST HANDICAPPING: 8-JOURNALISM

We typically try to buck the favorite, but we could not find a horse that we liked better. We will select 8-JOURNALISM for the win. He had the highest Beyer speed figure of 101 in his final prep race and a favorable stating post position.

We select 18-SOVEREIGNTY for second. Since 2000, 12 of the last 25 Derby winners have come from the 13 post or higher. Known for his speed, we would not be surprised if he breaks for the lead early and stays close to the front.

4-RODRIGUEZ has tremendous closing speed and will be coming hard to the finish line. The experience and winning pedigree of Baffert / Smith make this a formidable team. This same team led Justify to the triple crown.

11 of the last 15 winners were racing in the front half of the field for the opening mile and we expect all three will fit this category in this year’s Derby.

Our long shot pick is 10-GRANDE at 20-1. He has three-time Derby winner Johnny V in the saddle at a post position that results in a 10.5% win rate and an in the money percentage of 29.5%. For a longer – longer shot, 16-COAL BATTLE at 30-1. He won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn posting a speed rating of 98 and a respectable third in the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Briley said changes were being made for the Derby!!

HOWIE THE HORSE: 8-JOURNALISM

JORNALISM 3-1: Consistency is the key reeling off 4 consecutive wins. He will stalk the early speed, sitting off the lead until the top of the stretch.

CITIZEN BULL 20-1: Will take the lead from the start. Although he faded badly in the SA Derby, Baffert has him primed for a big effort as witnessed by his excellent morning works.

BURNHAM SQUARE 12-1: Had a great finish in the Blue Grass Stakes after being bumped and racing 5 wide to win by a nose. He will benefit from all the early speed, allowing him to close.

EAST AVENUE 20-1: Should be among the leaders setting the early pace. Led the entire way until getting caught at the wire in the Blue Grass.

If Baeza gets in the race, he will be a factor and should be included in exotics.

Danny Dimes: 14-TIZTASTIC

It's that time of year again to solve one of sports' greatest puzzles!

So here is what I don't like in the Derby: 1) The favorites. Zero value in what I think is another wide-open race; 2) The California horses. Winning in 5-horse fields does nothing for me and as we have seen, they are completely unprepared for the free-for-all they will experience on Saturday.; 3) The Baffert horses, including Rodriguez. There is way too much speed in this race to see a repeat of Medina Spirit who got a golf-cart pace a few years ago.

I am really torn between 2 horses, and will bet them both: Burnham Square and Tiztastic. Since I was so impressed with his victory in the Louisiana Derby, and even texted Jeff about it, I will go with 14-TIZTASTIC as my top pick. What struck me the most about that race is how he ran down that field coming down the lane. The scary part is this: was it a one-off and will the Kentucky Derby be a bounce-back? However, if he continues to improve, this is an insane number at 20-1. I would be shocked if he goes off with more value than 11-1 at post-time. Steve Asmussen is due.

The other horse I like here is 9-BURNHAM SQUARE. People are bashing his closing fractions at the Blue Grass, but he still got up, didn't he? And I was told it was a weird meet this year at Keeneland. This is a horse with improving data every single race, and I don't think he has run his best yet. Love the trainer. Not the greatest value at 12-1, but I get Brian Hernandez on the mount, and he knows Churchill better than anyone.

LONG SHOTS

Don't laugh, but I am putting some money on the maiden 13-PUBLISHER. This is Asmussen's other horse, and if you can convince Irad Ortiz, arguably the best jockey in the world, to jump off another horse in the Derby and take the mount, there has to be a reason. Since there is rain in the forecast for both Friday and Saturday, I am putting some money on 16-COAL BATTLE, as he is 2 for 2 on the off-track. Finally, I am going to throw a few dollars on 7-LUXOR CAFE. This is another American Pharoah horse, and he just keeps winning. Everyone has been talking up the Japanese horses for years and this year, no one is talking about them. That is a great angle for me and you cannot discount the breeding.

EXOTICS

I think there are about 6-7 major closers in this race, including the ones above, and will be boxing them in multiple Exactas and Triples.That is my strategy every year. Good luck!

THE BUG BOY: 9-BURNHAM SQUARE

The 151st Kentucky Derby is set for Churchill Downs this Saturday, May 3rd, and Brian “The Bug Boy” is back locating some value among the 20-horse field. Let’s cut to the chase:

Journalism is the horse to beat. This $825,000 Eclipse Thoroughbred purchase, trained by Michael McCarthy, is the complete package. A stalker with a pedigree tailor-made for the 1 1/4-mile distance, Journalism boasts a 4-for-5 record and has the grit to overcome adversity, as he proved in his Santa Anita Derby score. He’s got every hallmark of a Kentucky Derby champion.

But I’m the Bug Boy, and favorites aren’t my play. My pick for Kentucky Derby 151 is Burnham Square, a live price ready to steal the roses. Trained by Ian Wilkes and piloted by Brian Hernandez Jr., this colt has been on a steady ascent since his first time out, capping his preps with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Sired by Liam’s Map and out of the Scat Daddy mare Linda, Burnham Square blends blazing speed with stamina, a pedigree perfectly suited for the Derby’s demanding distance.

Since his Blue Grass score, Burnham Square’s workouts at Churchill Downs have been razor-sharp, signaling he’s hitting his peak at the perfect moment. With a field loaded with early speed, his off-the-pace style is a tactical dream.

Picture this: as the frontrunners fade in the stretch, Burnham Square surges late, Hernandez weaving through traffic to deliver Wilkes his first Kentucky Derby crown. Burnham Square is the value play to light up the board and make history in the Run for the Roses.

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